Current Fed Funds Rate
3.65%
Target: 3.50–3.75%
CPI Inflation
2.4%
+0.4% above 2% target
Unemployment Rate
4.4%
Above 4% NAIRU
10Y Treasury Yield
4.46%
US Treasury 10-year
Cycle Peak
5.33%
Jul 2023 – Aug 2024
Total Cuts (2024–25)
−175bps
6 FOMC meetings
Federal Funds Rate — Historical Trend
Jan 2023–Present · Source: NY Fed API
FOMC Decision Log
All meetings 2023–2026 · 26 decisions
| Date | Decision | Change | New Rate | Vote |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | HOLD | — | 3.50–3.75% | 12–0 |
| Jan 28, 2026 | HOLD | — | 3.50–3.75% | 12–0 |
| Dec 10, 2025 | CUT | -25 bps | 3.50–3.75% | 12–0 |
| Oct 29, 2025 | CUT | -25 bps | 3.75–4.00% | 12–0 |
| Sep 17, 2025 | CUT | -25 bps | 4.00–4.25% | 12–0 |
| Jul 30, 2025 | HOLD | — | 4.25–4.50% | 12–0 |
| Jun 18, 2025 | HOLD | — | 4.25–4.50% | 12–0 |
| May 7, 2025 | HOLD | — | 4.25–4.50% | 12–0 |
| Mar 19, 2025 | HOLD | — | 4.25–4.50% | 12–0 |
| Jan 29, 2025 | HOLD | — | 4.25–4.50% | 12–0 |
| Dec 18, 2024 | CUT | -25 bps | 4.25–4.50% | 12–0 |
| Nov 7, 2024 | CUT | -25 bps | 4.50–4.75% | 12–0 |
| Sep 18, 2024 | CUT | -50 bps | 4.75–5.00% | 11–1 |
| Jul 31, 2024 | HOLD | — | 5.25–5.50% | 12–0 |
| Jun 12, 2024 | HOLD | — | 5.25–5.50% | 12–0 |
| May 1, 2024 | HOLD | — | 5.25–5.50% | 12–0 |
| Mar 20, 2024 | HOLD | — | 5.25–5.50% | 12–0 |
| Jan 31, 2024 | HOLD | — | 5.25–5.50% | 12–0 |
| Dec 13, 2023 | HOLD | — | 5.25–5.50% | 12–0 |
| Nov 1, 2023 | HOLD | — | 5.25–5.50% | 12–0 |
Fed Dual Mandate — Policy Gap Dashboard
Price Stability (2% CPI) · Max Employment (4% NAIRU) · Rate Neutral (2.5%)
Policy Pressure
NEUTRAL
CPI Inflation Gap
2.4%
Target: 2.0% · +0.43% above
Near target
Unemployment Gap
4.4%
Target: 4.0% NAIRU · +0.40% above
Near target
Rate Restrictiveness
3.6%
Target: 2.50% neutral · +1.15% above
Pressure to hike/hold
Policy Pressure Scorecard
Inflation Mandate
CLOSE
CPI +0.43% vs 2%
Employment Mandate
MET
Unemp +0.40% vs 4%
Rate vs Neutral
RESTRICTIVE
+1.15% above neutral
Next Move Bias
NEUTRAL
Score: -0.33
Yield Curve — 2Y vs 10Y Treasury Spread
Fed Balance Sheet — QE & QT History
30-Year Mortgage Rate vs Fed Funds Rate
Fed Rate vs CPI Inflation
Fed Rate vs Unemployment Rate
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CPI Alert Above (%)
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